Raw Greater Sagefish
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 21153 · vendor 1s 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 81 | 38% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 34 | 74% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 44 sales out of 152 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 79c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 2s 94c | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 3s 10c | 75% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +5% 3s 26c | 43% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% 3s 41c | 21% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +20% 3s 72c | 4% | 84% | 84% | 84% | 84% |
| +30% 4s 3c | 1% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| +50% 4s 65c | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -18.87 ± 6.53: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.17. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 28% of listed quantity across 12 postings (HHI 0.165, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 80% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 96c | 3s 78c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 96c | 3s 78c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 2s 19c | 3s 80c | 17 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s 91c | 2s 74c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s 90c | 2s 74c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Sagefish Delight Cooking |
1 | −1s 56c |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.