Smoked Sagefish
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 21072 · vendor 40c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 64 | 40% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 25 sales out of 71 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 58c | 48% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
| −5% 62c | 42% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| +0% 65c | 37% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +5% 68c | 32% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| +10% 72c | 28% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +20% 78c | 22% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +30% 84c | 18% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +50% 98c | 12% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.26 ± 3.59: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.73. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 35% of listed quantity across 12 postings (HHI 0.237, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 44% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Cooking: 1× Raw Sagefish 60c, 1× 
Mild Spices 6c
Materials 66c → sells for 61c: −5c per craft
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.