Raw Sagefish
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 21071 · vendor 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 81 | 47% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| floor to +10% | 19 | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| +10% to +30% | 20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 50 sales out of 124 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 54c | 41% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| −5% 57c | 38% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| +0% 60c | 34% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +5% 63c | 32% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +10% 66c | 29% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| +20% 72c | 25% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| +30% 78c | 22% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
| +50% 90c | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.03 ± 0.99: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.82. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 29% of listed quantity across 24 postings (HHI 0.128, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 28% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 60c | 78c | 18 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 78c | 18 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 70c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 70c | 8 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 70c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 60c | 1s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 60c | 1s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Smoked Sagefish Cooking |
1 | −5c |
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