FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.1 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Greater Healing Potion

Consumable · Potions · item 1710 · vendor 1s 25c

own demand model

Floor4s 75ccheapest 4s

Median4s 85cby quantity

Listed1,119159 listings

Sold / day394avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	32	92%	92%	92%	92%	92%
floor to +10%	46	56%	56%	56%	56%	56%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 36 sales out of 80 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 4s 28c	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 4s 51c	96%	96%	96%	96%	96%
+0% 4s 75c	67%	67%	67%	67%	67%
+5% 4s 99c	34%	34%	34%	34%	34%
+10% 5s 22c	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%
+20% 5s 70c	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+30% 6s 18c	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+50% 7s 12c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 25.31: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at4s 63ceach · −3% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 18c

Chance it sells84%~2.99h on the AH

Expected value4s 30c3s 5c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 25 postings (HHI 0.161, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 30% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 66c	5g	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 66c	5g	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 66c	5g	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 66c	5g	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 65c	5g	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 65c	5g	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 67c	2g 4s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 67c	2g 4s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 66c	2g 4s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 66c	2g 4s	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

First Aid: 1× Leaded Vial 50c, 3× Hot Spices 38c, 1× Liferoot 2s

Materials 3s 64c → sells for 4s 51c: 87c per craft

Can craft it: Baharr