Liferoot
Trade Goods · Herb · item 3357 · vendor 75c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 130 | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| floor to +10% | 113 | 76% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 94 sales out of 248 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 80c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 1s 90c | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 2s | 75% | 89% | 89% | 89% | 89% |
| +5% 2s 10c | 41% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| +10% 2s 20c | 19% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +20% 2s 40c | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +30% 2s 60c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 3s | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 7.80: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 37% of listed quantity across 38 postings (HHI 0.164, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 65% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 13c | 2s 81c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 13c | 2s 81c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 13c | 2s 81c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 12c | 2s 81c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 2s 10c | 3s 97c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 2s 9c | 3s 97c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 2s 9c | 3s 97c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 2s 9c | 3s 97c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 2s 9c | 3s 97c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Draught of Water Walking Alchemy |
1 | 19s 85c |
| Lesser Cleric's Elixir Alchemy | 2 | 3s 23c |
| Root Tea Cooking | 2 | 2s 65c |
 Troll's Blood Elixir Alchemy |
1 | 2s 49c |
 Greater Healing Potion First Aid |
1 | 87c |
| Lesser Mender's Potion Alchemy | 2 | 64c |
 Nature Protection Potion Alchemy |
1 | −2s 64c |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.