FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Wicked Leather Gauntlets

Armor · Leather · item 15083 · vendor 68s 72c

own demand model

Floor99scheapest 99s

Median99sby quantity

Listed7676 listings

Sold / day76avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	34	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%
floor to +10%	34	24%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 39 sales out of 68 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 89s 10c	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 94s 5c	94%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+0% 99s	64%	96%	96%	96%	96%
+5% 1g 3s	32%	71%	71%	71%	71%
+10% 1g 8s	14%	39%	39%	39%	39%
+20% 1g 18s	3%	8%	8%	8%	8%
+30% 1g 28s	0%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+50% 1g 48s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at1geach · +1% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 10s 30c

Chance it sells93%~2.8h on the AH

Expected value93s 41c24s 69c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 82% of listed quantity across 4 postings (HHI 0.685, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 82% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 8× Rugged Leather 16s 77c, 1× Black Dye 10s 44c, 1× Rune Thread 48s 99c

Materials 1g 93s → sells for 94s 5c: −99s 54c per craft