FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Runecloth Headband

Armor · Cloth · item 13866 · vendor 1g 13s

own demand model

Floor2gcheapest 1g 99s

Median2g 22sby quantity

Listed3333 listings

Sold / day25avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	75	37%	37%	37%	37%	37%
+10% to +30%	9	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 25 sales out of 84 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 1g 80s	26%	26%	26%	26%	26%
−5% 1g 90s	28%	28%	28%	28%	28%
+0% 2g	30%	30%	30%	30%	30%
+5% 2g 10s	31%	31%	31%	31%	31%
+10% 2g 20s	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+20% 2g 40s	37%	37%	37%	37%	37%
+30% 2g 60s	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%
+50% 3g	47%	47%	47%	47%	47%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 1.43 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at5geach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 17s 3c

Chance it sells73%~4.16h on the AH

Expected value3g 86s2g 72s more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 48% of listed quantity across 5 postings (HHI 0.344, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 62% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 4× Bolt of Runecloth 68s 80c, 2× Ironweb Spider Silk 38s 80c, 1× Rune Thread 55s 99c

Materials 4g 8s → sells for 1g 90s: −2g 18s per craft