Shadowgem
Trade Goods · Other · item 1210 · vendor 2s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 236 | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| floor to +10% | 151 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +10% to +30% | 13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 104 sales out of 410 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 38c | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| −5% 2s 51c | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +0% 2s 64c | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| +5% 2s 77c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +10% 2s 90c | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +20% 3s 17c | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| +30% 3s 43c | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| +50% 3s 96c | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.70 ± 1.54: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.70. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 75 postings (HHI 0.079, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 36% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 60c | 3s 50c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 60c | 3s 50c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 59c | 3s 50c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 59c | 3s 50c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 59c | 3s 50c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 60c | 5s | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 60c | 5s | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 59c | 5s | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 59c | 5s | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 59c | 5s | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Shadowskin Gloves Leatherworking |
4 | 15s 72c |
 Heavy Bronze Mace Blacksmithing |
1 | 14s 68c |
 Deadly Bronze Poniard Blacksmithing |
2 | 12s 67c |
 Big Black Mace Blacksmithing |
4 | 12s 9c |
 Goblin Jumper Cables Engineering |
2 | 10s 32c |
 Shadow Goggles Engineering |
2 | 6s 81c |
| Brass Knuckles Blacksmithing | 2 | 6s 67c |
 Rough Bronze Shoulders Blacksmithing |
1 | −6s 64c |
 Barbaric Iron Shoulders Blacksmithing |
2 | −7s 75c |
 Runed Copper Breastplate Blacksmithing |
1 | −15s 36c |
 Runed Silver Rod Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Ironforge Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
3 | – |
| Soul Vessel Engineering | 4 | – |
| Invoker's Cord Tailoring | 1 | – |
| Soulstaff Enchanting | 2 | – |
| Guard's Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Guard's Chain Leggings Blacksmithing | 4 | – |
| Guard's Chain Helm Blacksmithing | 6 | – |
| Guard's Boots Blacksmithing | 5 | – |
| Guard's Gloves Blacksmithing | 3 | – |
| Guard's Chain Belt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Guard's Silvered Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 8 | – |
| Guard's Silvered Chain Leggings Blacksmithing | 8 | – |
| Guard's Silvered Chain Helm Blacksmithing | 6 | – |
| Mithril Stiletto Blacksmithing | 6 | – |
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