FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Mageweave Bag

Container · Bag · item 10050 · vendor 25s

own demand model

Floor69s 90ccheapest 69s 87c

Median74s 20cby quantity

Listed393393 listings

Sold / day29avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	606	6%	6%	6%	6%	6%
floor to +10%	7	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+10% to +30%	12	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
over +30%	10	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 29 sales out of 635 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 62s 91c	24%	24%	24%	24%	24%
−5% 66s 40c	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%
+0% 69s 90c	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+5% 73s 40c	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+10% 76s 89c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+20% 83s 88c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+30% 90s 87c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 1g 4s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at62s 19ceach · −11% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 3s 75c

Chance it sells29%~8.91h on the AH

Expected value56s 43c31s 43c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 30% of listed quantity across 31 postings (HHI 0.123, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 42% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	69s	1g 69s	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 4× Bolt of Mageweave 28s 11c, 2× Silken Thread 5s 16c

Materials 1g 22s → sells for 66s 40c: −56s 36c per craft