Volatile Rum
Consumable · Potions · item 9260 · vendor 4s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 133 | 71% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| floor to +10% | 14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +10% to +30% | 14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 62 sales out of 163 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 31c | 63% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| −5% 4s 55c | 55% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| +0% 4s 79c | 48% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| +5% 5s 3c | 42% | 76% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
| +10% 5s 27c | 37% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| +20% 5s 75c | 28% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +30% 6s 23c | 22% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| +50% 7s 18c | 14% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.75 ± 1.58: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.70. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 28% of listed quantity across 20 postings (HHI 0.139, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 46% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Goblin Rocket Fuel Alchemy |
1 | −1s 5c |
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