Star Ruby
Trade Goods · Other · item 7910 · vendor 50s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 230 | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
| floor to +10% | 168 | 27% | 85% | 85% | 85% | 85% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 91 sales out of 398 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 53s 99c | 20% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| −5% 56s 99c | 22% | 61% | 61% | 61% | 61% |
| +0% 59s 99c | 24% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| +5% 62s 99c | 26% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| +10% 65s 99c | 28% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| +20% 71s 99c | 32% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| +30% 77s 99c | 36% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| +50% 89s 98c | 44% | 89% | 89% | 89% | 89% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 1.88 ± 2.82: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.20. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 30% of listed quantity across 13 postings (HHI 0.147, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 42% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Truesilver Breastplate Blacksmithing |
4 | 9g 19s |
 Dimensional Ripper - Everlook Engineering |
2 | 5g 29s |
 Wizardweave Turban Tailoring |
1 | 5g 23s |
 Ebon Shiv Blacksmithing |
2 | 2g 17s |
 Gnomish Mind Control Cap Engineering |
2 | 1g 97s |
 Imperial Plate Leggings Blacksmithing |
2 | 17s 4c |
 Spellpower Goggles Xtreme Engineering |
2 | −10s 54c |
 Sniper Scope Engineering |
1 | −38s 34c |
| Rose Colored Goggles Engineering |
2 | −60s 33c |
 Goblin Jumper Cables XL Engineering |
2 | −90s 77c |
 Imperial Plate Bracers Blacksmithing |
1 | −1g 36s |
 Imperial Plate Boots Blacksmithing |
1 | −1g 96s |
 Truesilver Champion Blacksmithing |
6 | – |
 Mithril Mechanical Dragonling Engineering |
2 | – |
 Radiant Breastplate Blacksmithing |
1 | – |
 Thorium Helm Blacksmithing |
1 | – |
 Demon Forged Breastplate Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Fiery Plate Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Imperial Plate Helm Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Imperial Plate Chest Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Runic Breastplate Blacksmithing |
1 | – |
| Runic Plate Leggings Blacksmithing |
1 | – |
 Dawn's Edge Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Volcanic Hammer Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Blood Talon Blacksmithing |
10 | – |
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