Heavy Leather Ammo Pouch
Quiver · Ammo Pouch · item 7372 · vendor 5s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 40 | 68% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| floor to +10% | 26 | 8% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 44 sales out of 67 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 12s 40c | 50% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
| −5% 13s 9c | 41% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| +0% 13s 78c | 33% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| +5% 14s 47c | 27% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| +10% 15s 16c | 22% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +20% 16s 54c | 14% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +30% 17s 91c | 10% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +50% 20s 67c | 5% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.28 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.60. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.109, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 50% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 8× 
Heavy Leather 2s 10c, 2× 
Fine Thread 94c
Materials 18s 68c → sells for 13s 9c: −5s 59c per craft
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