Essence of Fire
Trade Goods · Elemental · item 7078 · vendor 4s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 103 | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 23 sales out of 110 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1g 57s | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| −5% 1g 66s | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +0% 1g 74s | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +5% 1g 83s | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| +10% 1g 92s | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| +20% 2g 9s | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
| +30% 2g 27s | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +50% 2g 62s | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -0.45 ± 1.80: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.96. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 12% of listed quantity across 45 postings (HHI 0.063, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 30% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 79s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 79s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 79s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 79s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 79s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 79s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 78s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 78s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 78s | 5g 87s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 78s | 5g 87s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 1× 
Essence of Air 5g 21s
Materials 5g 21s → sells for 1g 66s: −3g 54s per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Transmute: Fire to Earth Alchemy |
1 | 77s 69c |
 Smoking Heart of the Mountain Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Fiery Plate Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Blazing Rapier Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Alchemist's Stone Alchemy |
8 | – |
 Cindercloth Cloak Tailoring |
1 | – |
| Cloak of Fire Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Cindercloth Pants Tailoring |
1 | – |
 Robe of the Archmage Tailoring |
8 | – |
 Robe of the Void Tailoring |
8 | – |
| Volcanic Leggings Leatherworking |
1 | – |
 Volcanic Breastplate Leatherworking |
1 | – |
 Volcanic Shoulders Leatherworking |
1 | – |
 Flawless Arcanite Rifle Engineering |
2 | – |
 Flarecore Gloves Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Sulfuron Hammer Blacksmithing |
25 | – |
 Flarecore Wraps Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Belt of the Archmage Tailoring |
10 | – |
 Inferno Gloves Tailoring |
10 | – |
 Gyrofreeze Ice Reflector Engineering |
4 | – |
 Flarecore Robe Tailoring |
6 | – |
| Flarecore Leggings Tailoring |
10 | – |
 Spitfire Bracers Leatherworking |
2 | – |
 Spitfire Gauntlets Leatherworking |
2 | – |
 Spitfire Breastplate Leatherworking |
2 | – |
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