Smoked Bear Meat
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 6890 · vendor 6c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 48 | 31% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 25 sales out of 50 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 27c | 56% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| −5% 28c | 48% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| +0% 30c | 40% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| +5% 32c | 34% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| +10% 33c | 29% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +20% 36c | 21% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| +30% 39c | 15% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +50% 45c | 8% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -4.43 ± 2.02: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.66. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 38% of listed quantity across 10 postings (HHI 0.203, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 81% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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