FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Bear Meat

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 3173 · vendor 15c

own demand model

Floor33ccheapest 28c

Median47cby quantity

Listed1,532146 listings

Sold / day1,236avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	292	47%	77%	77%	77%	77%
floor to +10%	30	68%	83%	83%	83%	83%
+10% to +30%	6	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
over +30%	9	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 182 sales out of 337 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 30c	52%	88%	88%	88%	88%
−5% 31c	44%	81%	81%	81%	81%
+0% 33c	38%	74%	74%	74%	74%
+5% 35c	32%	67%	67%	67%	67%
+10% 36c	28%	60%	60%	60%	60%
+20% 40c	20%	48%	48%	48%	48%
+30% 43c	15%	38%	38%	38%	38%
+50% 50c	9%	23%	23%	23%	23%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -4.02 ± 0.75: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.68. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at36ceach · +9% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 2c

Chance it sells59%~6.18h on the AH

Expected value31c16c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 37% of listed quantity across 26 postings (HHI 0.163, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 36% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	35c	4
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	35c	4
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	35c	6
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	35c	6
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	35c	6
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	35c	6
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	37c	6
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	37c	6
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	37c	6
Sat 14 Nov 22:49	28c	37c	6

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Blood Sausage Cooking	1	4s 98c
Smoked Bear Meat Cooking	1	−5c