Nightcrawlers
Consumable · Other · item 6530 · vendor 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 124 | 23% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 26 sales out of 127 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 86c | 86% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| −5% 91c | 49% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| +0% 96c | 21% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| +5% 1s 1c | 9% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +10% 1s 6c | 4% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +20% 1s 15c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 1s 25c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 1s 44c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 30.39: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 30% of listed quantity across 18 postings (HHI 0.151, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 22% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Aquadynamic Fish Attractor Engineering |
1 | 2s 91c |
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