FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Raw Rainbow Fin Albacore

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 6361 · vendor 2c

own demand model

Floor18ccheapest 18c

Median23cby quantity

Listed3,558148 listings

Sold / day1,052avg of last 2 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	560	17%	26%	26%	26%	26%
floor to +10%	16	38%	50%	50%	50%	50%
over +30%	10	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 131 sales out of 589 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 16c	18%	27%	27%	27%	27%
−5% 17c	18%	27%	27%	27%	27%
+0% 18c	18%	28%	28%	28%	28%
+5% 19c	18%	28%	28%	28%	28%
+10% 20c	18%	28%	28%	28%	28%
+20% 22c	19%	28%	28%	28%	28%
+30% 23c	19%	29%	29%	29%	29%
+50% 27c	20%	30%	30%	30%	30%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 0.24 ± 0.37: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.02. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at42ceach · +133% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells33%~8.66h on the AH

Expected value23c21c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 16% of listed quantity across 47 postings (HHI 0.067, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	21c	50c	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	28c	50c	20
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	28c	50c	20

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Rainbow Fin Albacore Cooking	1	3c