FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Rainbow Fin Albacore

Consumable · Food & Drink · item 5095 · vendor 3c

own demand model

Floor23ccheapest 23c

Median27cby quantity

Listed1,37364 listings

Sold / day804avg of last 2 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	158	27%	30%	30%	30%	30%
+10% to +30%	10	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%
over +30%	8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 48 sales out of 180 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 21c	42%	45%	45%	45%	45%
−5% 22c	36%	38%	38%	38%	38%
+0% 23c	30%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+5% 24c	26%	28%	28%	28%	28%
+10% 25c	22%	24%	24%	24%	24%
+20% 28c	17%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+30% 30c	13%	14%	14%	14%	14%
+50% 34c	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.77 ± 1.42: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.70. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at23ceach · +0% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells30%~8.8h on the AH

Expected value20c17c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 15% of listed quantity across 29 postings (HHI 0.068, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 36% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.