FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Raw Bristle Whisker Catfish

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 6308 · vendor 2c

own demand model

Floor27ccheapest 23c

Median33cby quantity

Listed2,165151 listings

Sold / day4,114avg of last 2 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	481	47%	83%	83%	83%	83%
floor to +10%	80	72%	95%	95%	95%	95%
+10% to +30%	70	37%	43%	43%	43%	43%
over +30%	89	6%	6%	6%	6%	6%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 405 sales out of 720 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 24c	45%	73%	73%	73%	73%
−5% 26c	43%	71%	71%	71%	71%
+0% 27c	42%	70%	70%	70%	70%
+5% 28c	40%	68%	68%	68%	68%
+10% 30c	39%	66%	66%	66%	66%
+20% 32c	37%	64%	64%	64%	64%
+30% 35c	34%	61%	61%	61%	61%
+50% 40c	31%	56%	56%	56%	56%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -0.93 ± 0.16: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.92. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at63ceach · +133% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells42%~7.96h on the AH

Expected value38c36c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 68 postings (HHI 0.066, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 67% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sun 15 Nov 01:49	29c	50c	9
Sun 15 Nov 01:49	28c	40c	1
Sun 15 Nov 00:49	22c	28c	2
Sun 15 Nov 00:49	20c	28c	2
Sun 15 Nov 00:49	20c	28c	2
Sun 15 Nov 00:49	20c	28c	2
Sun 15 Nov 00:49	20c	28c	2
Sun 15 Nov 00:49	24c	30c	2
Sun 15 Nov 00:49	24c	30c	2
Sun 15 Nov 00:49	23c	30c	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Bristle Whisker Catfish Cooking	1	−17c