Bristle Whisker Catfish
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 4593 · vendor 4c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 305 | 60% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| floor to +10% | 25 | 37% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| +10% to +30% | 25 | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| over +30% | 21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 250 sales out of 376 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 10c | 55% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| −5% 10c | 51% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
| +0% 11c | 47% | 84% | 84% | 84% | 84% |
| +5% 12c | 43% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +10% 12c | 40% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| +20% 13c | 34% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| +30% 14c | 29% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| +50% 16c | 22% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.34 ± 0.40: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.80. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 42 postings (HHI 0.07, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 94% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 15 Nov 01:49 | 11c | 14c | 8 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 10c | 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 10c | 13c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 10c | 13c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 10c | 13c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 10c | 13c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 10c | 13c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 10c | 13c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 14c | 28c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 14c | 28c | 20 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Cooking: 1× Raw Bristle Whisker Catfish 27c
Materials 27c → sells for 10c: −17c per craft
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