Dig Rat Stew
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 5478 · vendor 70c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 33 | 10% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 14 sales out of 33 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 63c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| −5% 66c | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +0% 70c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +5% 74c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +10% 77c | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +20% 84c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +30% 91c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +50% 1s 5c | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (pooled across the house: this item has fewer than 20 tracked sales). Price effect β = -0.63 ± 0.08: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.94. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 38% of listed quantity across 5 postings (HHI 0.261, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 38% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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