FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Dig Rat

Quest · Quest · item 5051 · vendor 1c

own demand model

Floor2s 98ccheapest 2s 94c

Median3s 4cby quantity

Listed29096 listings

Sold / day188avg of last 2 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	270	46%	49%	49%	49%	49%
floor to +10%	44	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 130 sales out of 315 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 2s 68c	58%	62%	62%	62%	62%
−5% 2s 83c	48%	51%	51%	51%	51%
+0% 2s 98c	39%	41%	41%	41%	41%
+5% 3s 13c	31%	34%	34%	34%	34%
+10% 3s 28c	25%	27%	27%	27%	27%
+20% 3s 58c	16%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+30% 3s 87c	11%	12%	12%	12%	12%
+50% 4s 47c	5%	6%	6%	6%	6%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.54 ± 1.08: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.59. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at3s 18ceach · +7% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells31%~8.7h on the AH

Expected value2s 67c2s 66c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 34% of listed quantity across 26 postings (HHI 0.198, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 41% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	2s	3s 5c	2
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	2s	3s 5c	2
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	2s	3s 5c	2
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	2s	3s 5c	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Dig Rat Stew Cooking	1	−1s 65c