FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Blue Pearl

Trade Goods · Other · item 4611 · vendor 50c

own demand model

Floor16s 87ccheapest 15s

Median17s 9cby quantity

Listed820128 listings

Sold / day422avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	106	51%	67%	67%	67%	67%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 33 sales out of 110 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 15s 18c	73%	91%	91%	91%	91%
−5% 16s 3c	48%	69%	69%	69%	69%
+0% 16s 87c	28%	45%	45%	45%	45%
+5% 17s 71c	16%	27%	27%	27%	27%
+10% 18s 56c	9%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+20% 20s 24c	3%	5%	5%	5%	5%
+30% 21s 93c	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+50% 25s 30c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -13.24 ± 5.84: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.28. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at16s 76ceach · −1% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 7c

Chance it sells48%~7.04h on the AH

Expected value15s14s 50c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 35 postings (HHI 0.091, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 38% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Flash Bomb Engineering	1	43s 48c