FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Standard Scope

Consumable · Device · item 4406 · vendor 6s

own demand model

Floor6scheapest 6s

Median6sby quantity

Listed540136 listings

Sold / day303avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	214	15%	35%	35%	35%	35%
floor to +10%	8	0%	12%	12%	12%	12%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 61 sales out of 226 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 5s 40c	66%	95%	95%	95%	95%
−5% 5s 70c	31%	64%	64%	64%	64%
+0% 6s	12%	31%	31%	31%	31%
+5% 6s 30c	5%	13%	13%	13%	13%
+10% 6s 60c	2%	5%	5%	5%	5%
+20% 7s 20c	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+30% 7s 80c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 9s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 40.14: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at5s 43ceach · −9% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 90c

Chance it sells93%~2.35h on the AH

Expected value5s 8c−92c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 27% of listed quantity across 13 postings (HHI 0.145, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 28% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 21:49	6s	10s	3

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Engineering: 1× Bronze Tube 4s 66c, 1× Moss Agate 6s

Materials 10s 66c → sells for 5s 70c: −4s 96c per craft