FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.1 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Thick Spider's Silk

Trade Goods · Cloth · item 4337 · vendor 7s 50c

own demand model

Floor7s 50ccheapest 7s 50c

Median7s 97cby quantity

Listed571272 listings

Sold / day447avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	116	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
floor to +10%	184	30%	30%	30%	30%	30%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 55 sales out of 305 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 6s 75c	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 7s 12c	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%
+0% 7s 50c	50%	50%	50%	50%	50%
+5% 7s 88c	23%	23%	23%	23%	23%
+10% 8s 25c	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%
+20% 9s	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+30% 9s 75c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 11s 25c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 5.22: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at7s 5ceach · −6% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1s 12c

Chance it sells90%~2.29h on the AH

Expected value6s 55c−95c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 23% of listed quantity across 33 postings (HHI 0.106, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 49% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	8s	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 99c	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 90c	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 89c	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 69c	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 69c	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 69c	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 69c	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 55c	10s	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	7s 55c	10s	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Icy Cloak Tailoring	2	2g 54s
Gnomish Net-o-Matic Projector Engineering	4	34s 18c
Boots of the Enchanter Tailoring	2	15c
Swift Boots Leatherworking	2	−47c
Enchanter's Cowl Tailoring	2	−5s 98c
Spider Belt Tailoring	2	−6s 80c
Boots of the Enchanter Tailoring	2	–
Enchanter's Cowl Tailoring	2	–