Wintersbite
Trade Goods · Herb · item 3819 · vendor 1s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 343 | 50% | 76% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
| floor to +10% | 150 | 11% | 89% | 89% | 89% | 89% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 256 sales out of 497 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 11s 79c | 39% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| −5% 12s 44c | 38% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
| +0% 13s 10c | 37% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| +5% 13s 76c | 36% | 76% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
| +10% 14s 41c | 34% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +20% 15s 72c | 33% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| +30% 17s 3c | 31% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| +50% 19s 65c | 28% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 66% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -0.78 ± 1.41: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.93. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 46% of listed quantity across 25 postings (HHI 0.259, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 49% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Potion of Elemental Purging Alchemy |
2 | 2g 32s |
 Distilled Firewater Alchemy |
4 | 1g 73s |
 Cleric's Elixir Alchemy |
2 | 27s 66c |
 Superior Spellblasting Potion Alchemy |
2 | 9s 35c |
 Frost Oil Alchemy |
2 | 5s 61c |
 Mender's Potion Alchemy |
2 | 3s 5c |
 Frost Protection Potion Alchemy |
1 | −69c |
 Elixir of Frost Power Alchemy |
2 | – |
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