Armor · Mail · item 3474 · vendor 2s 16c
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 9 | 20% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 11 | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 5 sales out of 20 tracked listings.
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
The biggest single posting holds 29% of listed quantity across 14 postings (HHI 0.132, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 60% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 4s 98c | 9s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 19s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 98c | 19s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 19s 98c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 98c | 19s 98c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 29s | 1g 11s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 1g 11s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 98c | 1g 11s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 98c | 20s | 1 |
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Blacksmithing: 8×
Copper Bar 2s, 1×
Tigerseye 1s 28c, 1×
Malachite 15c
Materials 17s 43c → sells for 3s 77c: −13s 66c per craft
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