Bolt of Linen Cloth
Trade Goods · Cloth · item 2996 · vendor 40c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 85 | 73% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 15 | 0% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| +10% to +30% | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 60 sales out of 113 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 49c | 51% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| −5% 51c | 38% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +0% 54c | 28% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| +5% 57c | 21% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +10% 59c | 15% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| +20% 65c | 9% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
| +30% 70c | 5% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +50% 81c | 2% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -7.19 ± 1.80: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.50. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 48% of listed quantity across 34 postings (HHI 0.253, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 25% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 53c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 48c | 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 46c | 80c | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Linen ClothUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Cloudy Stormsewn Cuffs Tailoring | 3 | 88s 27c |
| Azure Stormsewn Cord Tailoring | 3 | 88s 24c |
| Cloudy Stormsewn Shoes Tailoring | 4 | 82s 95c |
| Azure Stormsewn Cuffs Tailoring | 3 | 73s 99c |
| Azure Stormsewn Leggings Tailoring | 5 | 45s 46c |
| Azure Stormsewn Vest Tailoring | 5 | 39s 36c |
| Azure Stormsewn Handwraps Tailoring | 4 | 31s 28c |
| Cloudy Stormsewn Leggings Tailoring | 5 | 25s 54c |
 Blue Linen Shirt Tailoring |
2 | 5s 66c |
| Sandpaper Engineering | 1 | 4s 85c |
 Blue Linen Robe Tailoring |
4 | 2s 30c |
 Brown Linen Robe Tailoring |
3 | 2s 12c |
| Linen Reagent Bag Tailoring | 6 | 1s |
 Heavy Linen Gloves Tailoring |
2 | 69c |
 Brown Linen Pants Tailoring |
2 | 67c |
 Simple Dress Tailoring |
2 | 54c |
 White Linen Shirt Tailoring |
1 | 51c |
 White Linen Robe Tailoring |
3 | 39c |
 Linen Cloak Tailoring |
1 | 28c |
 Brown Linen Vest Tailoring |
1 | 28c |
 Brown Linen Shirt Tailoring |
1 | 28c |
 Linen Belt Tailoring |
1 | 28c |
 Simple Linen Pants Tailoring |
1 | 28c |
| Faction Banner Tailoring | 1 | 27c |
 Red Linen Vest Tailoring |
3 | 9c |
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