Copper Chain Belt
Armor · Mail · item 2851 · vendor 56c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 376 | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| floor to +10% | 8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 61 sales out of 421 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 15c | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| −5% 1s 22c | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| +0% 1s 28c | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +5% 1s 34c | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +10% 1s 41c | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +20% 1s 54c | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +30% 1s 66c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 1s 92c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -8.14 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.46. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 13% of listed quantity across 22 postings (HHI 0.095, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 35% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 28c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 27c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 27c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 27c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 27c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 27c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 27c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 27c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 27c | 3s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 1s 28c | 2s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Blacksmithing: 6× 
Copper Bar 1s 94c
Materials 11s 64c → sells for 1s 21c: −10s 43c per craft
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