Cloudy Gustwoven Boots
Armor · Leather · item 277003
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 6 | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 18 | 0% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 23 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 25 sales out of 54 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 53s 10c | 64% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 56s 5c | 44% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 59s | 28% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +5% 61s 95c | 18% | 92% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% 64s 90c | 11% | 78% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +20% 70s 80c | 5% | 45% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +30% 76s 70c | 2% | 22% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| +50% 88s 50c | 0% | 5% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -10.75 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.36. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 100% of listed quantity across 1 postings (HHI 1.0, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 30s | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 30s | 50s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 6× 
Light Leather 57c, 3× 
Coarse Thread 13c
Materials 3s 81c → sells for 56s 5c: 52s 24c per craft
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