Coyote Steak
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 2684 · vendor 20c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 54 | 28% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 22 sales out of 54 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3s 95c | 45% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
| −5% 4s 17c | 40% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 74% |
| +0% 4s 39c | 36% | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| +5% 4s 61c | 32% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| +10% 4s 83c | 29% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| +20% 5s 27c | 23% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +30% 5s 71c | 19% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| +50% 6s 58c | 13% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.91 ± 26.56: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.76. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 30% of listed quantity across 10 postings (HHI 0.2, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 31% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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