FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Coyote Meat

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 2673 · vendor 10c

own demand model

Floor11s 79ccheapest 11s 7c

Median12s 38cby quantity

Listed1,18545 listings

Sold / day486avg of last 2 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	138	10%	23%	23%	23%	23%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 21 sales out of 141 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 10s 61c	40%	72%	72%	72%	72%
−5% 11s 20c	16%	35%	35%	35%	35%
+0% 11s 79c	6%	14%	14%	14%	14%
+5% 12s 38c	2%	6%	6%	6%	6%
+10% 12s 97c	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+20% 14s 15c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+30% 15s 33c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 17s 68c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 8.02: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at11s 8ceach · −6% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1c

Chance it sells41%~7.79h on the AH

Expected value10s 18c10s 8c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 30% of listed quantity across 26 postings (HHI 0.143, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 40% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Coyote Steak Cooking	1	−7s 62c