FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Pincer Bites

Consumable · Food & Drink · item 263512 · vendor 1s

own demand model

Floor2s 30ccheapest 2s 30c

Median2s 83cby quantity

Listed20725 listings

Sold / day168avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	60	27%	63%	86%	86%	86%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 32 sales out of 62 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 2s 7c	31%	75%	95%	95%	95%
−5% 2s 18c	36%	80%	97%	97%	97%
+0% 2s 30c	41%	85%	98%	98%	98%
+5% 2s 42c	46%	89%	99%	99%	99%
+10% 2s 53c	51%	92%	100%	100%	100%
+20% 2s 76c	61%	97%	100%	100%	100%
+30% 2s 99c	70%	99%	100%	100%	100%
+50% 3s 45c	85%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 3.18 ± 1.25: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.35. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at5s 75ceach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 15c

Chance it sells100%~1.25h on the AH

Expected value5s 45c4s 45c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 39% of listed quantity across 9 postings (HHI 0.221, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Cooking: 1× Crawler Claw 14c, 1× Simple Flour 1s 21c

Materials 1s 35c → sells for 2s 18c: 83c per craft