FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Greater Mender's Potion

Consumable · Potions · item 250947 · vendor 1c

own demand model

Floor44ccheapest 42c

Median59cby quantity

Listed1,383228 listings

Sold / day245avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	522	8%	9%	9%	9%	9%
+10% to +30%	12	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
over +30%	21	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 42 sales out of 558 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 40c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
−5% 42c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+0% 44c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+5% 46c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+10% 48c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+20% 53c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+30% 57c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 66c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 0.77: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at30ceach · −32% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells0%~12.0h on the AH

Expected value37c36c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 26% of listed quantity across 43 postings (HHI 0.113, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 90% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 23:49	58c	80c	5
Sat 14 Nov 23:49	58c	80c	5
Sat 14 Nov 23:49	58c	80c	5
Sat 14 Nov 23:49	58c	80c	5
Sat 14 Nov 23:49	58c	80c	5
Sat 14 Nov 23:49	58c	80c	5
Sat 14 Nov 21:49	45c	60c	5
Sat 14 Nov 21:49	45c	60c	5
Sat 14 Nov 21:49	45c	60c	5
Sat 14 Nov 21:49	44c	60c	5

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Alchemy: 2× Arthas' Tears 17s 77c, 1× Purple Lotus 5s 10c, 1× Crystal Vial 5s 99c

Materials 46s 63c → sells for 41c: −46s 22c per craft