FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Minor Mender's Potion

Consumable · Potions · item 250944 · vendor 1c

house-wide demand model

Floor98ccheapest 98c

Median98cby quantity

Listed426 listings

Sold / day10avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	16	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 1 sales out of 16 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 88c	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%
−5% 93c	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%
+0% 98c	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+5% 1s 3c	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+10% 1s 8c	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%
+20% 1s 18c	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+30% 1s 27c	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+50% 1s 47c	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (pooled across the house: this item has fewer than 20 tracked sales). Price effect β = -0.63 ± 0.08: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.94. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at2s 40ceach · +145% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells11%~10.78h on the AH

Expected value97c96c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 69% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.506, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 69% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Alchemy: 2× Mageroyal 87c, 1× Bruiseweed 96c, 1× Empty Vial 6c

Materials 2s 76c → sells for 93c: −1s 83c per craft