Elixir of the Owl
Consumable · Elixirs · item 250337 · vendor 1s 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 30 | 17% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 7 sales out of 30 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 53% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.346, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 53% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 4× 
Dreamfoil 18s 30c, 2× 
Mountain Silversage 15s 92c, 1× 
Imbued Vial 90s
Materials 1g 95s → sells for 3g 79s: 1g 84s per craft
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