Pristine Scale
Trade Goods · Leather · item 249429 · vendor 3s 75c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 104 | 35% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 31 sales out of 105 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 56s 12c | 91% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| −5% 59s 23c | 55% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +0% 62s 35c | 25% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +5% 65s 47c | 10% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +10% 68s 59c | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +20% 74s 82c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 81s 6c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 93s 52c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 13.02: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 29 postings (HHI 0.105, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 40% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 60s 35c | 1g 10s | 5 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Red Dragonscale Leggings Leatherworking |
10 | 128g |
 Ironfeather Leggings Leatherworking |
10 | 83g 22s |
 Timbermaw Tunic Leatherworking |
10 | 48g 23s |
 Ultralight Goblin Glider Engineering |
8 | 21g 50s |
 Living Crown Leatherworking |
10 | 7g 47s |
 Mystic Rugged Armor Kit Leatherworking |
1 | 1g 63s |
| Forceful Rugged Armor Kit Leatherworking |
1 | −81s 56c |
 Black Dragonscale Helm Leatherworking |
10 | −4g 69s |
 Bottomless Bag Tailoring |
5 | – |
 Pristine Scorpid Leggings Leatherworking |
10 | – |
| Blue Dragonscale Helm Leatherworking |
10 | – |
 Warbear Helm Leatherworking |
10 | – |
 Dawn Armor Leatherworking |
10 | – |
 Invulnerable Mail Leatherworking |
10 | – |
 Bottomless Reagent Bag Tailoring |
5 | – |
 EZ-Thro Shell Engineering |
1 | – |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.