FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Mote of Magic

Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 247786 · vendor 1c

own demand model

Floor9ccheapest 8c

Median10cby quantity

Listed4,52062 listings

Sold / day1,529avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	97	29%	89%	91%	91%	91%
+10% to +30%	16	12%	25%	25%	25%	25%
over +30%	6	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 66 sales out of 119 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 8c	40%	94%	95%	95%	95%
−5% 9c	38%	93%	94%	94%	94%
+0% 9c	37%	92%	93%	93%	93%
+5% 9c	35%	91%	92%	92%	92%
+10% 10c	34%	90%	91%	91%	91%
+20% 11c	31%	87%	89%	89%	89%
+30% 12c	29%	85%	87%	87%	87%
+50% 14c	26%	80%	83%	83%	83%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.07 ± 0.46: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.90. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at22ceach · +144% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells65%~5.99h on the AH

Expected value16c15c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 21 postings (HHI 0.125, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 46% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	7c	9c	4
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	7c	9c	4
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	7c	9c	20
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	7c	9c	20
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	7c	9c	20
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	7c	9c	20
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	7c	9c	20
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	7c	9c	20
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	7c	3s 7c	20

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Enchanting: 1× Strange Dust 1s 4c

Materials 1s 4c → sells for 25c: −79c per craft

Can craft it: David, Dingus, Ezrealith, Shermoond, Zolon

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Novice's Practice Wand Enchanting	1	46c
Runed Copper Rod Enchanting	1	–