Strange Dust
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 10940 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 119 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| floor to +10% | 59 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +10% to +30% | 9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 26 sales out of 193 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 4c | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| −5% 1s 9c | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| +0% 1s 15c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +5% 1s 21c | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| +10% 1s 27c | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +20% 1s 38c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +30% 1s 50c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 1s 72c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 6.64: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 11% of listed quantity across 47 postings (HHI 0.056, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 16% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s 13c | 1s 48c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s 13c | 1s 48c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s 12c | 1s 48c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1s 10c | 1s 39c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1s 10c | 1s 39c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1s 9c | 1s 39c | 20 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Mystic Medium Armor Kit Leatherworking | 2 | 2s 24c |
| Enchanted Lute Enchanting | 1 | 54c |
| Forceful Medium Armor Kit Leatherworking | 2 | 36c |
| Dust to Motes Enchanting | 1 | −96c |
| Minor Wizard Oil Enchanting | 1 | −1s 55c |
 Runed Silver Rod Enchanting |
3 | – |
| Blackfathom Mana Oil Enchanting | 5 | – |
| Scroll of Spatial Mending Enchanting | 4 | – |
| Mystic Mushroom Enchanting | 5 | – |
| Tenets of the Silver Hand Enchanting | 2 | – |
| Polished Driftwood Icon Enchanting | 3 | – |
| Glimmering Staff Enchanting | 5 | – |
| Orb of Mystic Insight Enchanting | 5 | – |
| Strange Copper Boots Blacksmithing | 4 | – |
| Acolyte's Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Acolyte's Chain Leggings Blacksmithing | 4 | – |
| Acolyte's Chain Helm Blacksmithing | 6 | – |
| Acolyte's Boots Blacksmithing | 5 | – |
| Acolyte's Gloves Blacksmithing | 3 | – |
| Acolyte's Chain Belt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Acolyte's Silvered Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 8 | – |
| Acolyte's Silvered Chain Leggings Blacksmithing | 8 | – |
| Acolyte's Silvered Chain Helm Blacksmithing | 6 | – |
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