Elixir of Minor Force
Consumable · Elixirs · item 247755 · vendor 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 68 | 44% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 74% |
| floor to +10% | 7 | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| over +30% | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 45 sales out of 83 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 24c | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 26c | 65% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| +0% 27c | 34% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| +5% 28c | 16% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| +10% 30c | 7% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| +20% 32c | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +30% 35c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 40c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -18.30 ± 5.82: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.17. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 24 postings (HHI 0.102, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 32% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 27c | 1s | 10 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 1× 
Silverleaf 23c, 1× 
Empty Vial 6c
Materials 29c → sells for 25c: −4c per craft
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.