Elixir of Minor Strength
Consumable · Elixirs · item 2454 · vendor 20c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 6 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 21 | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| +10% to +30% | 22 | 43% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 28 sales out of 50 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 51c | 80% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| −5% 1s 60c | 72% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| +0% 1s 68c | 64% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| +5% 1s 76c | 57% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +10% 1s 85c | 50% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| +20% 2s 2c | 38% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +30% 2s 18c | 29% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| +50% 2s 52c | 17% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -4.24 ± 3.13: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.67. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 23% of listed quantity across 22 postings (HHI 0.097, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 38% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 1× 
Earthroot 1s 49c, 1× 
Silverleaf 25c, 1× 
Empty Vial 6c
Materials 1s 80c → sells for 1s 59c: −21c per craft
Can craft it: Mister
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Forceful Medium Armor Kit Leatherworking | 2 | 36c |
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