Embossed Leather Cloak
Armor · Cloth · item 2310 · vendor 1s 12c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 77 | 39% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 17 | 12% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 83 sales out of 94 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 25c | 27% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| −5% 2s 38c | 27% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| +0% 2s 50c | 28% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| +5% 2s 62c | 28% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| +10% 2s 75c | 28% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| +20% 3s | 29% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| +30% 3s 25c | 30% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| +50% 3s 75c | 31% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 0.32 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.03. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 75% of listed quantity across 2 postings (HHI 0.625, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 33c | 5g | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 5× 
Light Leather 70c, 2× 
Coarse Thread 13c
Materials 3s 76c → sells for 2s 37c: −1s 39c per craft
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.