Stonescale Oil
Trade Goods · Other · item 13423 · vendor 1s 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 89 | 13% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| floor to +10% | 5 | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 21 sales out of 94 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 76c | 29% | 61% | 61% | 61% | 61% |
| −5% 1s 86c | 28% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| +0% 1s 96c | 26% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| +5% 2s 6c | 25% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +10% 2s 16c | 24% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| +20% 2s 35c | 22% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +30% 2s 55c | 21% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| +50% 2s 94c | 18% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.02 ± 2.12: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.91. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 69% of listed quantity across 7 postings (HHI 0.5, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 88% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 1× 
Stonescale Eel 15s, 1× 
Leaded Vial 49c
Materials 15s 49c → sells for 3s 72c: −11s 77c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Flask of Petrification Alchemy |
30 | 44g 64s |
 Flask of the Titans Alchemy |
10 | 28g 7s |
 Greater Stoneshield Potion Alchemy |
3 | 38s 4c |
 Elixir of Greater Defense Alchemy |
2 | −23s 50c |
 Tooled Leather Armor Leatherworking |
6 | – |
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