Stonescale Eel
Trade Goods · Other · item 13422 · vendor 10c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 191 | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| +10% to +30% | 95 | 0% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 96 sales out of 287 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 84c | 73% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 1s 95c | 54% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 2s 5c | 38% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +5% 2s 15c | 26% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +10% 2s 26c | 18% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| +20% 2s 46c | 8% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| +30% 2s 66c | 4% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| +50% 3s 8c | 1% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -9.34 ± 1.27: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.41. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 25 postings (HHI 0.113, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 32% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 44c | 3s 28c | 21 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Stonescale Oil Alchemy |
1 | 1s 17c |
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