Dense Stone
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 12365 · vendor 2s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 136 | 32% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| floor to +10% | 45 | 38% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| +10% to +30% | 14 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 107 sales out of 195 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 4c | 33% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| −5% 4s 27c | 32% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
| +0% 4s 49c | 31% | 61% | 61% | 61% | 61% |
| +5% 4s 71c | 30% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| +10% 4s 94c | 29% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +20% 5s 39c | 27% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| +30% 5s 84c | 26% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| +50% 6s 74c | 23% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -0.80 ± 1.58: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.93. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 36% of listed quantity across 22 postings (HHI 0.195, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 42% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Molten Foundry Mining |
2 | 7g 29s |
 Dense Blasting Powder Engineering |
2 | 92s 65c |
 Dense Grinding Stone Blacksmithing |
4 | 4s 81c |
 Dense Weightstone Blacksmithing |
1 | 3s 31c |
 Dense Sharpening Stone Blacksmithing |
1 | 1s 21c |
 Elemental Sharpening Stone Blacksmithing |
3 | – |
 Obsidian Bomb Engineering |
1 | – |
 Swiftstrike Shot Engineering |
8 | – |
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