Blue Sapphire
Trade Goods · Other · item 12361 · vendor 70s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 157 | 17% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| floor to +10% | 30 | 33% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 60 sales out of 192 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4g 92s | 38% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| −5% 5g 20s | 26% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| +0% 5g 47s | 17% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| +5% 5g 74s | 11% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| +10% 6g 2s | 8% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| +20% 6g 56s | 4% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +30% 7g 11s | 2% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +50% 8g 21s | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -9.04 ± 3.48: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.42. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 18 postings (HHI 0.109, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 22% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 78s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 78s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 75s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 75s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 75s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 75s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 75s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 75s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 75s | 9g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5g 74s | 9g | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Blessed Plate Belt Blacksmithing |
1 | 9g 20s |
 Blessed Plate Pauldrons Blacksmithing |
1 | 8g 71s |
 Blessed Plate Boots Blacksmithing |
1 | 7g 95s |
 Blessed Plate Bracers Blacksmithing |
1 | 7g 63s |
 Thorium Armor Blacksmithing |
1 | – |
 Demon Forged Breastplate Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Lionheart Helm Blacksmithing |
10 | – |
 Stronghold Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Enchanted Thorium Leggings Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Inlaid Thorium Hammer Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Dawn's Edge Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Serenity Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Corruption Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Frostguard Blacksmithing |
8 | – |
 Dark Iron Rifle Engineering |
2 | – |
 Gyrofreeze Ice Reflector Engineering |
2 | – |
 Desecration Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Tranquility Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Stronger-hold Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
| Tempest Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Blessed Plate Gauntlet Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Blessed Plate Leggings Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Blessed Plate Helm Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Blessed Plate Chest Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Breastplate of Salvation Blacksmithing |
10 | – |
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