Rough Copper Vest
Armor · Mail · item 10421 · vendor 32c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 141 | 36% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 10 | 20% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 96 sales out of 162 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 30c | 31% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| −5% 1s 38c | 29% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| +0% 1s 45c | 27% | 85% | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| +5% 1s 52c | 25% | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| +10% 1s 60c | 24% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| +20% 1s 74c | 21% | 76% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
| +30% 1s 88c | 18% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| +50% 2s 18c | 15% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.67 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.85. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 33% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.155, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 60% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 75c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s 50c | 4s 99c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Blacksmithing: 4× 
Copper Bar 1s 94c
Materials 7s 76c → sells for 1s 37c: −6s 39c per craft
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