Heavy Mageweave Bandage
Consumable · Bandages · item 8545 · vendor 6s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 73 | 18% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| over +30% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 19 sales out of 80 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 8s 10c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| −5% 8s 55c | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +0% 9s | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +5% 9s 45c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +10% 9s 90c | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +20% 10s 80c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +30% 11s 70c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +50% 13s 50c | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (pooled across the house: this item has fewer than 20 tracked sales). Price effect β = -0.63 ± 0.08: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.94. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 36% of listed quantity across 7 postings (HHI 0.254, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 94% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 6s 22c | 10s | 20 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 6s 21c | 10s | 20 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 6s 22c | 10s | 20 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 6s 21c | 10s | 20 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 6s 22c | 10s | 20 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 6s 21c | 10s | 20 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 6s 22c | 10s | 20 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 6s 21c | 10s | 20 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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