Stringy Vulture Meat
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 729 · vendor 17c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 693 | 6% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| floor to +10% | 11 | 9% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +10% to +30% | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 248 sales out of 725 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 15c | 9% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| −5% 16c | 6% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| +0% 17c | 5% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| +5% 18c | 3% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +10% 19c | 3% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +20% 20c | 2% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +30% 22c | 1% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +50% 26c | 0% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -6.37 ± 2.17: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.55. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 26 postings (HHI 0.122, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 18% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 15 Nov 01:49 | 17c | 30c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 17c | 60c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 18c | 30c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 17c | 30c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 17c | 30c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 17c | 30c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 17c | 30c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 17c | 30c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 17c | 30c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 17c | 30c | 4 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Westfall Stew Cooking |
1 | 2s 16c |
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