Heart of Fire
Trade Goods · Elemental · item 7077 · vendor 4s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 214 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 97 | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 22 sales out of 311 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 45s 4c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| −5% 47s 55c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +0% 50s 5c | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +5% 52s 55c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +10% 55s 6c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +20% 60s 6c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +30% 65s 6c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +50% 75s 8c | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -0.80 ± 0.38: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.93. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 27 postings (HHI 0.091, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 34% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 31s | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 28s 99c | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 23s | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 23s | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 23s | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 23s | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 21s | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 21s | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 21s | 77s 10c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 21s | 77s 10c | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Dimensional Ripper - Everlook Engineering |
4 | 5g 29s |
 Helm of Fire Leatherworking |
8 | 2g 91s |
 Ornate Mithril Breastplate Blacksmithing |
1 | 2g 60s |
 Transmute: Elemental Fire Alchemy |
1 | 61s 1c |
 Radiant Leggings Blacksmithing |
4 | 56s 40c |
 Cindercloth Robe Tailoring |
2 | −14s 1c |
 Cindercloth Boots Tailoring |
1 | −19s 47c |
 Mithril Mechanical Dragonling Engineering |
4 | – |
 Dark Iron Plate Blacksmithing |
8 | – |
 Dark Iron Mail Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Dark Iron Pulverizer Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Dark Iron Sunderer Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Dark Iron Shoulders Blacksmithing |
1 | – |
 Pet Bombling Engineering |
1 | – |
 Radiant Belt Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Radiant Breastplate Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Radiant Gloves Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Radiant Boots Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Radiant Circlet Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Blazing Rapier Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Volcanic Hammer Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Cindercloth Vest Tailoring |
3 | – |
 Cindercloth Gloves Tailoring |
3 | – |
 Cloak of Fire Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Tempered Dark Iron Plate Blacksmithing |
8 | – |
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